Rip Curl Cup Forecast powered by Surfline
Surfline Forecast Update: Monday Morning, July 24th, 2017 (local time)
Note: The Surfline Bali Forecast on the site is valid for the most exposed breaks in the region and that Padang Padang will see smaller wave heights.
Solid SW swell over Friday and the weekend, possibly Monday as well. Good conditions expected. More sizable swell on the radar for early August as well.
STILL ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
A couple progressively larger/stronger storms have recently tracked out from under Africa and through the Southwest Indian Ocean, pushing out a couple progressively larger SW swells for Bali over the middle to end of the week. The initial pulse (SW 235-225°) will build in Tuesday and peak Wednesday the 26th with overhead occasional well overhead sets at Padang (6-8’+ faces).
Then a bigger and long period SW swell (235-220°) will build in late Wednesday through Thursday. Watch for the new energy to provide long period sets (19-22 seconds) up to a few feet overhead+ before dark on Thursday. This swell peaks on Friday. NOTE – We feel that our LOLA model is running a little cold on this swell, and that the WW3 model is much more on point, reading a peak of about 7 feet at 17-19 seconds for Friday. With that kind of swell running, we expect sets around the double overhead zone (8-12’ faces) at Padang on Friday, with occasional larger waves, especially during the better tides. This size holds strong all day and through Saturday.
Favorable factors of this swell…
- Westerly angle and long period, which will refract and bowl harder across the reef.
- Low then incoming tides for the mornings.
- Offshore East-SE’erly Trades expected to prevail.
The same storm is looking to regroup in the Southeast Indian Ocean over the next couple days, where it may setup another strong and closer fetch for Bali, thus delivering more solid/reinforcing SW swell (220-205°) for Sun/Mon. If this behaves as forecast, then double overhead+ sets will continue for Padang going to the start of next week.
After that, long range models continue to indicate that strong storm activity will continue to march across the Southern Ocean over the week. With this consistency across the models, our confidence is high that early August will see more sizable SW-SSW swell (possibly over the 3rd-5th).
Next Update: Tuesday morning, July 25th (local time).